However,DBNsonly allow for a fixed chain of Markov dependencies between time slices and cannot represent nested hierarchicalstructures.

Bayesian computational strategies for inference can be inefficient in approximating the posterior distribution in models that exhibit some form of periodicity. This is because the probability mass of the marginal posterior distribution of the parameter representing the period is usually highly concentrated in a very small region of the parameter space. Therefore, it is necessary to provide as much information as possible to the inference method through the parameter prior distribution. We intend to show that it is possible to construct a prior distribution from the data by fitting a Gaussian process (GP) with a periodic kernel. More specifically, we want to show that it is possible to approximate the marginal posterior distribution of the hyperparameter corresponding to the period in the kernel. Subsequently, this distribution can be used as a prior distribution for the inference method. We use an adaptive importance sampling method to approximate the posterior distribution of the hyperparameters of the GP. Then, we use the marginal posterior distribution of the hyperparameter related to the periodicity in order to construct a prior distribution for the period of the parametric model. This workflow is empirical Bayes, implemented as a modular (cut) transfer of a GP posterior for the period to the parametric model. We applied the proposed methodology to both synthetic and real data. We approximated the posterior distribution of the period of the GP kernel and then passed it forward as a posterior-as-prior with no feedback. Finally, we analyzed its impact on the marginal posterior distribution.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Data assimilation will be essential for the management and expansion of geological carbon storage operations. In traditional data assimilation approaches a fixed set of geological hyperparameters, such as mean and standard deviation of log-permeability, is often assumed. Such hyperparameters, however, may be highly uncertain in practical CO2 storage applications. In this study, we develop a hierarchical data assimilation framework for carbon storage that treats hyperparameters as uncertain variables characterized by hyperprior distributions. To deal with the computationally intractable likelihood function in hyperparameter estimation, we apply a likelihood-free (or simulation-based) inference algorithm, specifically sequential Monte Carlo-based approximate Bayesian computation (SMC-ABC), to draw independent posterior samples of hyperparameters given dynamic monitoring-well data. In the second step we use an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) procedure to provide posterior realizations of grid-block permeability. To reduce computational costs, a 3D recurrent R-U-Net deep-learning surrogate model is applied for forward function evaluations. The accuracy of the surrogate model is established through comparisons to high-fidelity simulation results. A rejection sampling (RS) procedure for data assimilation is applied to provide reference posterior results. Detailed data assimilation results from SMC-ABC-ESMDA are compared to those from the reference RS method. These include marginal posterior distributions of hyperparameters, pairwise posterior samples, and history matching results for pressure and saturation at the monitoring location. Close agreement is achieved with 'converged' RS results, for two synthetic true models, in all quantities considered. Importantly, the SMC-ABC-ESMDA procedure provides speedup of 1-2 orders of magnitude relative to RS for the two cases.

We introduce an innovative method for incremental nonparametric probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state spaces. Our approach leverages \slices from high-dimensional surfaces to efficiently approximate posterior distributions of any shape. Unlike many existing graph-based methods, our \slices perspective eliminates the need for additional intermediate reconstructions, maintaining a more accurate representation of posterior distributions. Additionally, we propose a novel heuristic to balance between accuracy and efficiency, enabling real-time operation in nonparametric scenarios. In empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets, our \slices approach consistently outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. It demonstrates superior accuracy and achieves a significant reduction in computational complexity, often by an order of magnitude.

Denoisers play a central role in many applications, from noise suppression in lowgrade imaging sensors, to empowering score-based generative models. The latter category of methods makes use of Tweedie's formula, which links the posterior mean in Gaussian denoising (i.e., the minimum MSE denoiser) with the score of the data distribution. Here, we derive a fundamental relation between the higherorder central moments of the posterior distribution, and the higher-order derivatives of the posterior mean. Particularly, we show how to efficiently compute the principal components of the posterior distribution for any desired region of an image, as well as to approximate the full marginal distribution along those (or any other) one-dimensional directions. Our method is fast and memory efficient, as it does not explicitly compute or store the high-order moment tensors and it requires no training or fine tuning of the denoiser. Code and examples are available on the project's webpage. Denoisers serve as key ingredients in solving a wide range of tasks. Indeed, along with their traditional use for noise suppression (Krull et al., 2019; Liang et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2017a; 2021), the last decade has seen a steady increase in their use for solving other tasks. For example, the plug-and-play method (Venkatakrishnan et al., 2013) demonstrated how a denoiser can be used in an iterative manner to solve arbitrary inverse problems (e.g., deblurring, inapinting). This approach was adopted and extended by many, and has led to state-of-the-art results on various restoration tasks (Brifman et al., 2016; Romano et al., 2017; Tirer & Giryes, 2018; Zhang et al., 2017b).

We propose the NFLikelihood, an unsupervised version, based on Normalizing Flows, of the DNNLikelihood proposed in Ref. [1]. We show, through realistic examples, how Autoregressive Flows, based on affine and rational quadratic spline bijectors, are able to learn complicated high-dimensional Likelihoods arising in High Energy Physics (HEP) analyses. We focus on a toy LHC analysis example already considered in the literature and on two Effective Field Theory fits of flavor and electroweak observables, whose samples have been obtained throught the HEPFit code. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of the unsupervised approach with respect to the supervised one and discuss possible interplays of the two.

Multimodal distributions of some physics based model parameters are often encountered in engineering due to different situations such as a change in some environmental conditions, and the presence of some types of damage and nonlinearity. In statistical model updating, for locally identifiable parameters, it can be anticipated that multi-modal posterior distributions would be found. The full characterization of these multi-modal distributions is important as methodologies for structural condition monitoring in structures are frequently based in the comparison of the damaged and healthy models of the structure. The characterization of posterior multi-modal distributions using state-of-the-art sampling techniques would require a large number of simulations of expensive to run physics-based models. Therefore, when a limited number of simulations can be run, as it often occurs in engineering, the traditional sampling techniques would not be able to capture accurately the multimodal distributions. This could potentially lead to large numerical errors when assessing the performance of an engineering structure under uncertainty.

The lasso and elastic net linear regression models impose a double-exponential prior distribution on the model parameters to achieve regression shrinkage and variable selection, allowing the inference of robust models from large data sets. However, there has been limited success in deriving estimates for the full posterior distribution of regression coefficients in these models, due to a need to evaluate analytically intractable partition function integrals. Here, the Fourier transform is used to express these integrals as complex-valued oscillatory integrals over "regression frequencies". This results in an analytic expansion and stationary phase approximation for the partition functions of the Bayesian lasso and elastic net, where the non-differentiability of the double-exponential prior has so far eluded such an approach. Use of this approximation leads to highly accurate numerical estimates for the expectation values and marginal posterior distributions of the regression coefficients, and allows for Bayesian inference of much higher dimensional models than previously possible.

The lasso and elastic net linear regression models impose a double-exponential prior distribution on the model parameters to achieve regression shrinkage and variable selection, allowing the inference of robust models from large data sets. However, there has been limited success in deriving estimates for the full posterior distribution of regression coefficients in these models, due to a need to evaluate analytically intractable partition function integrals. Here, the Fourier transform is used to express these integrals as complex-valued oscillatory integrals over "regression frequencies". This results in an analytic expansion and stationary phase approximation for the partition functions of the Bayesian lasso and elastic net, where the non-differentiability of the double-exponential prior has so far eluded such an approach. Use of this approximation leads to highly accurate numerical estimates for the expectation values and marginal posterior distributions of the regression coefficients, and allows for Bayesian inference of much higher dimensional models than previously possible.